‘Foresight may be the responsibility of a unit, but it should be the language of an organisation’
‘Foresight may be the responsibility of a unit, but it should be the language of an organisation’, says foresight expert Dr Ricardo Borges de Castro.
Ahead of the launch of our new executive education course EU Geopolitics this November, we spoke with Dr Borges de Castro to explore why foresight is a vital skill for navigating geopolitical change.
Dr Borges de Castro was a visiting scholar at the College of Europe where he researched European integration after Russia’s war on Ukraine. He is serving as a Senior Adviser at the European Policy Centre, and previously worked at the European Political Strategy Centre, where he was foresight lead during President Juncker’s term, in the cabinet of European Commission President Barroso, the Commission’s Spokesperson’s Service, and as policy advisor in Portugal.
Why foresight matters in a geopolitical EU
In the past year, the European Commission has highlighted its need for preparedness to tackle significant shifts and transformation in the way we live as well as interact globally. This is not only unique to the EU, but also governments are strengthening the use of foresight in their institutions and systems.
Q: Why do you think foresight is increasingly becoming more important to governments, organisations and private companies?
Dr Borges de Castro: “Indeed, a growing number of organisations - both public and private - are integrating and using foresight in their activities to strengthen policy- and decision-making processes. I think that is largely due to an increase in the levels of uncertainty and volatility resulting from higher geopolitical and geoeconomic risks, as well as the emergence of disruptive technologies and innovation.”
The EU is not only led by external changes, but also by its internal set-up
Looking at today’s geopolitical picture, we see that there are many changes happening across the globe, and that these have a large effect on how the EU works, moves and operates.
Q: Do you see any blind spots for Europe in the way it can deal with and tackle these external uncertainties?
Dr Borges de Castro: “When we think about geopolitics we tend to look out, to look for external risks and events that can undermine the EU’s security and stability. And that is a right approach. But, when it comes to Europe or the EU, in today’s geopolitical picture, we should also look in, to the internal fractures or divisions that may undermine a common and strong response to external threats. The blind spots are more of a strategic nature for the 27 Member-States in their ability (or not) to answer the following questions in a common and unified way:
- What is the EU for?
- What are the EU’s vital long-term interests and goals?
- Does the EU have the ways and means to achieve them?”.
Dealing with uncertainty: A mindset and a method
Traditionally, thinking ahead is the mindset of leaders – to plan and strategise for the future. However, with the geopolitical changes happening so rapidly, the mindset and skills of a ‘foresighter’ might be important at many levels in an organisation.
Q: Do you see foresight as more of a mindset, a methodology, or both? And how do these aspects interact in practice?
Dr Borges de Castro: “I think it is both. As I often say, ‘foresight may be the responsibility of a unit, but it should be the language of an organisation,’ especially in the age of permacrisis. In practical terms, the link and interaction between “methods” and “mindset” should also be achieved by a robust and effective ‘translation’ of foresight insights into policy- and decision-making. And that can be done both by those applying the foresight methodologies, as well as by those that are on the policy side and who understand the language of the long-term.”
Common pitfalls in planning for the future
One could say that uncertainty has been a defining theme globally, and especially economically, for the first half of 2025. The outlook for the next six months remains uncertain too.
Q: What do you see as some common mistakes for governments or organisations when dealing with the future and any possible uncertainty?
Dr Borges de Castro: “I think the biggest mistakes that governments and organisations may do concerning the future(s) and in the ways they deal with uncertainty are, chiefly, of two different orders.
The first pertains to mindset or culture, i.e., short-termism, conformity, risk-aversion, groupthink and, very often, the inability to just ask: “What if?”
The second pertains more to process, i.e., what is the link of foresight to key decision-makers? Is foresight well integrated into the policy-making process? Is foresight a continuous and sustainable activity or is it fragmented and subject to discontinuity?
Poor linkage to decision-making, deficient integration into policymaking, fragmentation and discontinuity of activities undermine the role that foresight can play.”
Thank you so much Dr Borges de Castro for your powerful insights and advice on how organisations can act to prepare for the future and integrate foresight in their strategies to dealing with future scenarios.
Interested in equipping your organisation with the tools to navigate geopolitical uncertainty? Explore our new executive education course EU Geopolitics- Foresight and the EU in a shifting global order, launching this autumn from 26-28 November 2025. Register by 2 October to benefit from the special launch discount.
More info EU Geopolitics - Foresight and the EU in a shifting global order | Coleurope
For questions, contact us at eugeopolitics@coleurope.eu.